2016 has
gotten off to a depressing start. Our
stock market, following the lead of Chinese and others, had its worst ever opening
weeks. The Middle East remains in
turmoil and, as Chemi Shalev writes in Haaretz, the Netanyahu
government has introduced legislation that directly threatens Israel’s long admired
democracy. Europeans meanwhile are
struggling with an influx of refugees, the reaction to which may undermine a EU
that boasts, and may depend on, open borders.
But awaiting the first voting in Iowa, nothing depresses me more than
the current presidential contest. This
is our election of anxiety and discontent.
Sarah
Palin’s endorsement
rant only underscored how disconcerting the candidacy of Donald Trump — and
how natural their pairing. Fellow
senators it seems fault Ted Cruz especially for being an unabashed
egotist. Isn’t that the Donald’s
domain? And then comes
word that Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering a run at buying the
presidency much as he effectively did three times the mayoralty in New York. Bloomberg is purported ready to spend $1 Billion
of his own money on such an effort. Who
does he think he is…a Koch?
Not
surprisingly, I found the president’s final State of the Union bittersweet. Watching it, I just couldn’t stop thinking
that there is no Barack Obama — no one of his special talents or intellect —
running in ’16. For all the young people
gathering at his rallies and despite an idealized liberal message, Sanders is
no Obama. Hillary Clinton, whom I
support because she is both experienced and qualified, has yet to fire us up, to evoke the passion for
which we yearn. But what adds most to my
own unrest is that she is the only candidate in either party who is ready to
take on the very complex and difficult job of being president from day one.
Indeed, I find the prospect that any one of the GOP candidates would sit
in the Oval Office no less that frightening.
That lack of viable choice isn’t good for the country.
Part of
what’s so depressing is that there is absolutely no joy on the campaign trail. Indeed, it is anxiety and discontent that
rule across the land. If that were not
bad enough, Republican candidates especially seem bent on magnifying and enflaming
our national unease. In his first
inaugural Franklin Roosevelt famously declared, “the only thing we
have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror….” It’s a
message that still resonates more than eight decades on. It could be credibly delivered in 2016, but it’s
not. Instead, as the columnist Roger
Cohen recently put it, this is a time when, “fear is a much-trafficked
commodity.” Listen to these candidates
and you’ll see that traffic coming at us fast and furious.
FDR was
right about exaggerated fear but, as when he took the oath in 1933, there is
good reason for the unease that prevails today. Bernie Sanders surely isn’t purposefully
fomenting fear, but his shrill one-dimensional economic focused message taps
specifically into a widespread anxiety. Despite
upbeat statistics, the recovery has yet to be felt on the ground across the
land. It isn’t only the widening gulf
between the super rich and everyone else, or income inequality per se. It’s that most Americans — Democrats,
Republicans and Independents — are losing ground in real terms. Inflation may be moderate and interest rates
low, but family income has either stalled or even declined. All too often the new jobs — and there are millions
of them — pay less than old ones. Republicans
don’t talk much about income inequality but there’s no doubt that the rise of
the so-called “outsiders” in this election cycle reflects in part the same
economic insecurity among their constituents.
I put outsiders in quotes because no one running for the presidency is
truly an outsider, certainly not real estate developer Trump or the decades
long senator Sanders. Ted Cruz, a
product of Princeton and Harvard, is married to a Goldman executive. How much more insider could you be?
If it
weren’t bad enough that people are falling behind economically, many see
themselves losing ground politically as well. White Christians, many of whom identify as
Republicans, look into the future and see their majority status, and
consequently their power, eroding. It
hasn’t really happened yet, but they know what’s coming and it unnerves them —makes
them frantic. That explains why they are
digging in and working so hard to turn the clock back, reverse progress
wherever they rule. Consider what’s happened in states like Wisconsin, Ohio and
here in North Carolina where I live. Changing
demographics and the coming rule of a much more open-minded generation may time
limit these regressions, but that doesn’t make them less meaningful or painful in
the present.
If Republicans
are protectively digging in, the naturally Democratic constituency is equally
discomforted. They see a systematic
attack on the trade unions that have been essential to middle class life, along
with blatant gerrymandering making a mockery of one-person-one-vote. If playing with districts were not enough,
voter suppression is on the rise, especially (but not exclusively) in former
confederate states. While those aging
white voters might fear the future, the soon to be majority are living a
frustrating present. The hard won gains
of the Civil Rights movement, especially its protection of voting rights, are,
with help from the Supreme Court, being undermined and reversed. That adds to
both anger and unease. For different reasons,
both sides are subject to the same emotion.
Finally
there is the fear, again opportunistically hyped, of "terrorism" abroad
and most especially when it touches the “homeland”. The attacks in Paris and in California have
set people on edge. That ISIS is not an
existential threat to the United States doesn’t mean that their violent attacks
— construed to insight terror — aren’t raising the level of fear. Ironically, the sponsors of this violence are
effectively partnering with rightist politicians in promoting fear for their
own, albeit different, purposes. ISIS is
a sophisticated manipulator of modern media while pretenders to public office stoke
anxiety on the stump.
As
primary voting gets underway, much of the hype, speculation and pontification
will be replaced by results — right. Lots
of spin will follow. The campaigns and talking
heads will tell us what we have seen and what it means. They will continue to insult our
intelligence. Projections will be made
and the horse race drama will gain new momentum. One thing is unlikely to change. This will continue
to be an election of real and carefully promoted anxiety and discontent. The only thing that might change
that is if candidates stop playing on our fears and start seriously addressing
them. At this point, I’m not optimistic,
which is what I find so depressing.
