In
rallying the support of their own citizens or allies, leaders often invoke the specter
of an external existential threat to their nation. We need only to look back at the first half
of the 20th Century to see that such threats can be real. Consider the countries of Europe overrun and
subjugated by Hitler’s Germany, those in Asia taken over by Imperial Japan and finally
those forced into the Soviet orbit. That
said, for the most part even the most horrendous of these existential threats turned
out to be relatively short-lived. Ask today’s
citizens of those countries.
So,
making a credible case for external existential threats is increasingly difficult,
if not impossible. Despite all the
hysteria surrounding 9/11, George W. Bush couldn’t convince us that Al Qaeda’s
challenge was existential. That made him
and his neocon retainers so desperate that they fashioned an existential threat
of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction out of whole cloth. Still they couldn’t make the case, because of
course there was none to be made. This
is not to suggest that existential threats can’t or won’t exist in the future,
especially for smaller states. Even so,
my guess is that we and other nations may have more to fear from within than
without. This is especially true when
something comes along that threatens a country’s national character or moral center. To be threatened from outside is challenging,
falling victim to a self-inflicted wound is truly tragic.
I
couldn’t help but think of this in considering Israel’s upcoming March 17 election. Immediately upon its 1948 founding, the
fledgling state found itself under attack from all of its Arab neighbors. Without question it faced an immediate and existential
threat, a potential delayed stillbirth. Despite
all odds, including the vastly superior numbers of their adversaries, tiny Israel
prevailed. Since its war for
independence, the country has been threatened on numerous occasions and each
time triumphed, preserving its sovereignty, its existence. Israel was born out of the Holocaust, midwifed
by guilt-ridden nations, including the United States, who too long averted
their eyes from what was happening to European Jewry. It was not the first time Jews had been
persecuted or faced possible extinction.
Indeed, looking at the arc of history, it is little wonder that Israel,
along with Jews around the world, sometimes seem to be suffering paranoia. Recognizing real not imagined threats has
forced Israel to be both vigilant and prepared. No nation can be expected to do less, but being
on continuous high alert comes with considerable cost.
When
it comes to Israel, as suggested in my December 2014 post commenting on Ari Shavit’s book, My Promised
Land, things are complicated.
Despite its military successes, the country remains surrounded by
hostile neighbors, some still vowing its destruction. It took control of the West Bank in a war it
didn’t start — quite the contrary — but finds itself the occupier of territory
that the United Nations designated as Arab (Palestinian) in its 1947 Partition Plan. Since its
inception, Israel has taken in countless Jewish refugees, fully integrating
them as citizens into its society. In
contrast, its Arab neighbors — many of them rich — refused to take in displaced
Arab Palestinians in 1948, in effect manufacturing a “refugee problem” that
remains unresolved. Israel may occupy,
but the Arab world has used these “homeless” people as pawns for its own
purposes, unwilling players in a chess game that never needed to be played.
Israel’s
founders had their differences but they were idealists who saw the new state in
almost utopian terms. Most of them were
secular, not religious. Yet they were
deeply committed to Am Yisrael — Jewish peoplehood. Most were exiles from, and profoundly touched
by, a war-torn and hostile Europe. For
them, persecution was an immediate and personal experience, loss of home and
family etched in their psyche. The idea
of a Jewish State, a permanent and secure homeland, was not an option but a
necessity born directly out of that experience. The nation they were building would be egalitarian,
not sectarian — the opposite of the totalitarian countries from which they
escaped.
It
was an idea and a reality rejected by the new country’s small ultra-orthodox (Haredi)
population, many of whom lived in Jerusalem.
That rejection didn’t sustain. Over
time, with continued immigration and an outsized birth rate the Haredis
would opportunistically and pragmatically change their stance becoming a
significant political force in the body politic. Together with the West Bank settler community
(to which many of them belong) and rightist parties, they have stood in
opposition to the two-state solution envisioned and embodied in UN’s 1947 partition
resolution. To them all the land that
was pre-1948 Palestine is the Promised Land; all belongs solely to the
Jewish people.
Bibi
Netanyahu, the aggressively vocal Israeli prime minister, likes to evoke external
existential threats, most notably a nuclear Iran. Without discounting that there are those who
regularly vow the country’s destruction, I think its greatest existential challenge
may come from within. That brings us back
to the upcoming election. While not on
the ballot, the issue of one state or two is certainly at stake. Remember, I defined an existential threat from
within as one that threatens a country’s national character or moral
center. For many years now, Israel has been moving
steadily away from its left/liberal roots (the founders Mapai Party) toward the
political right (Likud and others). As
my most recent post would demonstrate, they are not alone. Conservatives have been ascendant in the US
and rule in Germany, the UK, and may again in France at the next vote. Turkey,
a once moderate Moslem state in the region, has taken its own sharp turn to the
right.
Netanyahu,
whose firing of two key moderate coalition partners precipitated the impending
vote, is a man of the right. In recent
years he has paid lip service to two states — one Jewish and one Palestinian. But his sanctioning of further expansion on
the West Bank makes one wonder about his commitment and to the peace process in
general. Without question, more building
in the “territories” has complicated negotiations with the Abbas PLO government.
This is not to suggest that Israel is
the only party responsible for the failure of John Kerry’s peace initiative. In
a recent NY Times Op-Ed, Dennis Ross Bill Clinton’s principal negotiator in the 1990s contends
that the PLO shares equal, even greater, blame. Nonetheless, with the increasing rise of the
right, most notably but not exclusively the Haredi, talk of a single Jewish
state encompassing the West Bank and, one would assume Gaza, has entered the
conversation in a more serious way.
I
have Israeli relatives who feel that the election is unlikely to change
anything — the government or the status quo.
I’m not sure they will bother to vote and that itself says something,
including why the left is so weakened.
Not being an Israeli, I’m in no position to know that their assessment
is wrong. What does seem clear, even
from this vantage point, is that a big win for the right could indeed have
considerable consequence. Among others,
it might close the door on the two-state solution and transform Israel into
something very different than what the founders had envisioned. It could move the country from being an
occupier into a “Jewish Homeland” where Jews hold only a small and shrinking majority.
If the West Bank and Gaza were
incorporated into a single State of Israel, Arabs would immediately number 5.5
Million up from the current 1.7 Million.
That means that the Jewish population (6.1 Million) now 75% of the whole
would shrink to a tenuous majority.
Demographics alone, even allowing for the high Haredi growth rate (5%),
could tip that balance in relatively short order.
The
real question then is how would that single state be managed? Would there be universal suffrage, which
might one day lead to Arab rule or more likely would the non-Jewish population
be relegated to some kind of second-class citizenship. Think companies that have two classes of
stock, voting and not. Either way, over
time the character of the country would be totally altered — an existential
threat if there ever was one. For any
one who cares about Israel, not to mention the future of the Jewish people, the
implications of this outcome are almost too painful to contemplate. Imagine, for example, if Apartheid would
reemerge, only this time in the Holy Land. Again, an existential threat to the state and
an end to the Biblical promise, “out of Zion will come the authentic teaching,
the divine word out of Jerusalem.”
A
radical outcome from the upcoming vote would further alienate the world
community, perhaps even triggering some international action that could
undermine all for which the country’s people have worked. But that is really a very poor reason upon
which Israeli citizens should decide on how to vote. They shouldn’t allow this existential threat
for themselves and for their own future not because American Jews like myself
or others want that outcome. That’s true
as well for any future peace initiative.
Nobody can or should dictate Israel or the Palestinians fate. They have to do it for themselves and for
those who will come after them.